Jean-Christophe Caffet Discusses Global Economic Stabilization at Monaco Event

At a recent gathering at the Novotel Monte-Carlo, Jean-Christophe Caffet, Chief Economist at Coface, shared insights with Monaco Economic Board members, drawing from discussions at the Coface Country Risk Conference in Paris. Caffet portrayed the global economic situation with cautious optimism, predicting a steady global growth rate of 2.7 percent, primarily fueled by emerging markets. However, he highlighted Europe's sluggish economic outlook, with growth expected to plateau at merely one percent in 2025, a situation exacerbated by rising corporate failures in countries like France and Italy due to tight margins and slow productivity.

Caffet also discussed the potential economic implications for the United States amid political uncertainties, particularly concerning Donald Trump’s possible return to the political arena. He referred to this scenario as a "grey rhinoceros"—a visible yet underestimated risk that could disrupt economic stability. He cautioned that while short-term gains from protectionist measures and tax reforms might appear beneficial, they could lead to increased public debt and heightened trade barriers, affecting not only the U.S. but also European and Asian economies in the longer term.

Despite these challenges, Caffet remains optimistic about Europe's economic future, encouraged by shifts towards consumer-driven growth as advocated in the Draghi report. His presentation to Monaco's business community offered a balanced view of the current economic landscape, acknowledging the existing challenges while also highlighting potential areas of resilience and growth.